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It’s not all bad news as markets retreat on inflation news

Despite the media hype surrounding last week’s US rate hike, interest rates are going up but not as fast or as damaging as everyone thinks. The RBA upped rates for the first time in over 11 years by 25bps to 0.35 percent from 0.10 percent. Roughly a $65 a month increase, on a twenty-five year…

Ishan Dan | 18th May 2022 | More
Science versus history on predictive ability of yield curve

“Whatever you are thinking might be the trigger of a potential correction today, you are quite likely to be wrong” explains Michael Hampden-Turner, Director of Fixed Income at FTSE Russell in a recent blog post discussing the recession predicting capabilities of the yield curve. Headlines have been dominated by the undeniable fact and historic analysis…

Drew Meredith | 13th May 2022 | More
  • White noise: Great for babies, not so good for investors

    White noise is broadly defined as the combination of sounds of all different frequencies together, typically being used to mask other sounds. Among the most common uses of white noise is to help babies (and adults) sleep without background noise. Whilst highly powerful for this purpose, one could easily make the opposite conclusion when it…

    Drew Meredith | 13th May 2022 | More
    Be wary of over exposure to China, says Datt Capital

    In the wake of Covid lockdowns in Shanghai, investors are being warned to remain alert to shifts in China’s zero covid policy. According to Datt Capital founder and chief investment officer, Emanuel Datt, “China is the engine room of the global economy, and any further extension of lockdowns geographically will weigh heavily on the global…

    Ishan Dan | 11th May 2022 | More
  • The end of an era as rates reverse, recession next?

    Only those who completely avoid any sort of media, social or traditional, would not be aware that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this week hiked rates for the first time in more than a decade. Tuesday’s decision, which moved the cash rate from 0.1 to 0.35 per cent, has reverberated through the markets, however,…

    Drew Meredith | 4th May 2022 | More
    Australian equities set to outperform: Ausbil

    The March quarter is well and truly over. Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine is not. Chart 1: World equity market returns – March Quarter 2022 Looking at the world chart above, equity markets tumbled across the board in the quarter, except for some small pockets in Singapore and Australia. According to Ausbil, much of it…

    Ishan Dan | 29th Apr 2022 | More
    Don’t believe the inflation hype

    From the outset, it is important to highlight that I do not disagree that interest rates should be higher than the current ‘emergency’ settings by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Rather, in my view, much of the data suggests that interest rate hikes will do little to solve the inflation challenge facing not just…

    Drew Meredith | 29th Apr 2022 | More
    ‘Practical and temporary’ – Behind the 2022 budget

    Treasury Josh Frydenberg delivered his long-awaited, pre-election budget this week, seeking to offer respite to a ‘surge’ in the cost of living. The Federal Government, and next Government for that matter, face a difficult challenge in navigating what is likely a short-term surge in inflation and hit to the cost of living, with demands for…

    Drew Meredith | 30th Mar 2022 | More
    Ukraine war to cut growth, boost inflation

    The deepening war crisis in Ukraine is showing no sign of abating any time soon, with inflation hitting historical highs as war effects compound inflation triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. BlackRock has released a research note covering its macro and geo-political view. The global asset manager says, “The war in Ukraine has already caused a…

    Ishan Dan | 18th Mar 2022 | More
  • A timely reminder why mining companies make poor hedges

    The pandemic combined with the invasion of Ukraine has sent global commodity markets into flux. Commodities ranging from grain to crude oil are surging to near-record levels with 2020’s demand weakness offset by 2022’s significant supply-chain issues. In an environment of growing volatility and inflation, investors are naturally seeking hedges for their portfolios with gold…

    Drew Meredith | 16th Mar 2022 | More
    Russia, Ukraine and the challenge of transparency

    Low-cost or ‘passive’ investing has been touted as the biggest innovation in finance for the last several decades. The idea is simple, mastered by the likes of BlackRock and Vanguard, which is to replicate a major index, like the S&P500 or S&P/ASX200, and offer this vehicle to investors at the lowest cost possible. This has…

    Drew Meredith | 11th Mar 2022 | More
    Geopolitical events rattle markets – they rarely derail them.

    When Russia’s military poured over the Ukrainian border last week, the market sell-off was as predictable as the almost unanimous global condemnation of this naked aggression against a sovereign state. Stocks were sold off – the bellwether S&P500 is down nearly 10% in 2022 although this has also been prompted by fears of higher interest…

    Nicholas Way | 2nd Mar 2022 | More