The financial services giant’s top economists look at the risks that dominated markets this year and how they’re likely to evolve in 2024, warning that the new year could be a “rougher and more constrained ride” compared with 2023.
A recent global retirement survey by investment manager MFS shows nearly 60 per cent of Australians are rethinking how they’ll retire because of inflation worries – a bigger hit to retirement confidence than any other recent economic shock, including the COVID-19 pandemic.
While Australian household wealth is hitting new records, research shows much of it is held by just a few people, with the richest 5 per cent of Australians seeing their assets grow in value by 86 per cent over the last 20 years.
Australian consumers are showing real signs the largest and longest rate hiking cycle in 30 years is starting to bite. It might be the proof the RBA needs to see that its fight against inflation is working, adding further weight to the theory that rate rises are behind us.
Investors will need to adjust to a new context of greater volatility to get on the “right side” of new opportunities, BlackRock strategists said, with higher interest rates and inflation likely to stick around and “mega-forces” driving market performance.
NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran recently looked at the apparent disconnect between blockbuster sport franchise prices and earnings fundamentals, in an examination of how assets reach “trophy” status and what it means for determining their value.
In a sweeping report recommending a seismic economic overhaul, the Business Council of Australia said global shifts mean Australia must adapt – and act effectively on decarbonisation, deglobalisation and other challenges – or risk losing its place on the global stage.
The chief economist says rapidly falling inflation, high savings levels and a lack of excess are among the reasons this pivotal moment could pass without the major downturn that many have long dreaded. But AMP still puts recession odds at 50/50, and rate cuts will likely need to precede any growth rebound.
Governor Philip Lowe acknowledged some missteps in the central bank’s strategy on inflation during his tenure and said while the inflation target is now in view, further rate hikes may still be necessary to complete the bank’s important task.
The legendary investor says we’re in the midst of the third major shift he’s seen in his 50-year career, as a decades-long low-interest-rate environment shifts to something most investors have not yet experienced. It’s a new world in which credit investors – and especially bargain hunters – should thrive.
The steepest rate-hiking program in history has largely done its job, but softening inflation may not translate to an immediate pivot on official rates as cautious central banks seek a comfortable buffer, says Neuberger Berman.
Signs of rising economic optimism in Australia don’t change the narrative on the risk of recession, and chances remain very high for a deep downturn in Australia, according to a new report.